The Ontario PCs hold a 5.4-point lead over the Liberals, sitting at 39.1% to the Liberals' 33.7% in the current rolling average. The NDP trail well back at 18.2%, with the Greens at 4.6%.

The past seven days have seen a notable shift in Doug Ford's favour. The PCs are up 2.1 points while the Liberals have shed 3.1 points — a swing that, if sustained, would represent a meaningful reversal after the two parties appeared essentially deadlocked as recently as mid-May. The NDP have also slipped 1.4 points, continuing a softer stretch for the party.

That swing matters because Ontario was shaping up as a competitive race. The latest Abacus poll showing the PCs ten points clear of the Liberals suggests the PCs may be pulling away from what looked like a tight contest just weeks ago, giving Ford's government a more comfortable cushion heading into any potential campaign period.

Two of the last five polls are missing data, which limits confidence in the precise trend line. The direction is clear, but the magnitude of the PC surge should be treated with some caution until further polls confirm it.