No new polls were published this week; the average stands on polls through 2026-06-17. The number that matters remains a Progressive Conservative edge over the Ontario Liberals of roughly five points — the PCs at 41.8% against the Liberals at 36.5% — but that gap sits atop a set of surveys that cannot agree on whether it exists at all.

Nothing fresh landed in the past seven days, so the field rests where the last round of polling left it: the PCs on top at 41.8%, the Liberals close behind at 36.5%, the NDP third at 18.8%, and the Greens at 5.2%. What holds the eye is how sharply the recent firms split on the distance between the top two. Abacus Data, in both its June 17 and May 20 samples, has the PCs out front by nine or ten points. Spark Insights on June 15 and Liaison Strategies on May 16 put the two parties dead level at the identical figure. The NDP picture is no steadier: Mainstreet's May 7 reading places them well above where Abacus and Spark most recently have them, and Spark's number anchors the bottom of the range — a spread of roughly eight points from house to house on that party alone.

The mid-single-digit margin in the average, then, is a blend of two incompatible stories — tied readings and clear-PC readings splitting the difference into a lead neither group of firms actually shows. The third-place contest looks tidier in the rolling figure than in the underlying polls, where the NDP swings across a wide band by pollster. This is a case where a single survey can tug the whole average, and the firms genuinely disagree on the size of the PC lead. With no new input this week, the picture rests on a small handful of polls pulling in different directions, and no one number should be read as the settled state of the race.