Donald Trump's approval sits at 39.0%, against 57.7% disapproval, for a net of -18.6. The monthly trend has run in his favour: net approval improved 1.6 points over 30 days, with approval up 0.8 points and disapproval down 0.8 points. The past week barely registered, the net easing 0.2 points. A president this far underwater remains the anchor around which everything else in this snapshot is read.

The generic congressional ballot has tightened, and the movement is coming from one side. Democrats lead 47.7% to 42.8%, a margin of 4.9 points. Over both the past week and the past month, Republicans gained ground — up 0.8 points on the week and 0.9 points on the month — while Democratic support held roughly steady, narrowing the gap by 0.9 points across each window. That direction matters ahead of the November 3 vote. With the House standing at 218 Republicans to 212 Democrats and four seats vacant, a national lead under five points is the kind of edge that could decide control, though a countrywide figure never maps cleanly onto individual districts. The Senate, at 53-47 Republican, sits on harder terrain for the Democrats.