Donald Trump sits at 38.0% approval against 58.7% disapproval, a net of -20.7, and every movement tracked points the same way. Over the past week approval rose 0.3 points while disapproval fell 0.3 points, nudging the net up 0.6 points. The thirty-day picture runs deeper on the disapproval side, which fell 1.1 points as approval rose 0.3 points, lifting the net 1.4 points across the month.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead at 48.1% to 41.8% for the Republicans, a margin of 6.4 points that heads directly into the November 3 vote. The past week added little, with the Democratic figure up 0.2 points, the Republican up 0.1, and the margin up 0.2 points. Over thirty days the Republicans gained 0.5 points and the Democrats gained 0.3, trimming the gap 0.2 points. That lead is the number the midterms hinge on: the House currently splits 218 Republicans to 214 Democrats with two vacancies, and a national edge only matters where individual districts fall in line. The Senate stands at 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats.