MaplePolls — Canadian Political Polls

Demographics — Federal (2021 Census)

Population

36.9M

Median Age

41.6

Med. Income

$84,000

Vis. Minority

26.5%

Immigrants

23%

0-14

16%

15-24

11.7%

25-34

13.7%

35-44

13.3%

45-54

12.8%

55-64

13.6%

65+

18.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census

Demographics for Federal — age
Category	Percent
0-14	16%
15-24	11.7%
25-34	13.7%
35-44	13.3%
45-54	12.8%
55-64	13.6%
65+	18.9%

Prediction Markets vs Polls

Real-money bets vs polling averages

Next PM — Poll avg vs Market price

Mark Carney

Polls

45.3%

Bets

72%

Pierre Poilievre

Polls

34.2%

Bets

22%

Other

Polls

20.5%

Bets

6%

Election Outcome — Market Odds

52%

28%

13%

Liberal Majority 52%Liberal Minority 28%Conservative Minority 13%Conservative Majority 4%Other 3%

Data: Polymarket, Kalshi (mock)

Prediction market outcome odds
Outcome	Market %
Liberal Majority	52%
Liberal Minority	28%
Conservative Minority	13%
Conservative Majority	4%
Other	3%

Party Fundraising by Region

Elections Canada quarterly filings — Q1 2026

National Totals

CPC

$11.4M

LPC

$8.2M

NDP

$3.1M

BQ

$1.2M

GPC

$800K

By Region — Top 3 parties

BC

CPC

$1.4M

LPC

$1.1M

NDP

$600K

Prairies

CPC

$4.2M

LPC

$800K

NDP

$400K

ON

LPC

$3.5M

CPC

$3.2M

NDP

$1.2M

QC

LPC

$1.8M

BQ

$1.2M

CPC

$1.1M

Atlantic

LPC

$700K

CPC

$400K

NDP

$200K

North

LPC

$80K

CPC

$50K

NDP

$40K

Source: Elections Canada (mock data)

Party fundraising totals Q1 2026
Party	National Total
LPC	$8.2M
CPC	$11.4M
NDP	$3.1M
BQ	$1.2M
GPC	$800K

Media Temperature — 7 Day

Sentiment analysis of 200+ news articles this week

LPCStable

42%

38%

20%

CPCTrending negative

18%

35%

47%

NDPTrending positive

30%

50%

20%

BQStable

25%

55%

20%

PositiveNeutralNegative

Media sentiment per party — 7 day
Party	Positive	Neutral	Negative	Trend
LPC	42%	38%	20%	stable
CPC	18%	35%	47%	worsening
NDP	30%	50%	20%	improving
BQ	25%	55%	20%	stable

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