What If? — Scenario Builder
Use the +/- steppers to explore seat outcomes
LPC45% ≈ 153 seats
CPC34% ≈ 104 seats
NDP9% ≈ 18 seats
BQ6% ≈ 61 seats
GPC3% ≈ 2 seats
Total: 97%
153
104
61
0170 = majority338
Minority Government — LPC leads
| Party | Vote % | Estimated seats |
|---|---|---|
| LPC | 45% | 153 |
| CPC | 34% | 104 |
| NDP | 9% | 18 |
| BQ | 6% | 61 |
| GPC | 3% | 2 |
Election Calendar
May
2026
New Brunswick
Municipal
Passed
scheduled
Jul
2026
Manitoba (Dunnottar/Victoria Beach)
Municipal
2 mo
scheduled
Aug
2026
PEI (Resort Municipality)
Municipal
2 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Quebec
Provincial
4 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
British Columbia
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
NWT (Yellowknife)
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Ontario
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Manitoba
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Nov
2026
Prince Edward Island
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Nov
2026
Saskatchewan (Rural)
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Dec
2026
NWT (Hamlets)
Municipal
6 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Prince Edward Island
Provincial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Manitoba
Provincial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Northwest Territories
Territorial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Alberta
Provincial
17 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
NWT (Municipalities)
Municipal
17 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Nunavut
Municipal
17 mo
scheduled
Oct
2029
Federal
General Election
41 mo
scheduled
Pollster Accuracy Report Card
Based on final polls vs actual election results
A
Abacus Data
5 elections tracked — None detected
0.8pts
avg error
A-
Leger
8 elections tracked — Slight LPC lean
1.2pts
avg error
B+
Angus Reid
6 elections tracked — None detected
1.8pts
avg error
A
Nanos Research
7 elections tracked — None detected
0.9pts
avg error
B
Mainstreet
5 elections tracked — Slight CPC lean
2.3pts
avg error
B-
EKOS
6 elections tracked — Slight NDP lean
2.8pts
avg error
C+
Forum Research
4 elections tracked — Variable
3.5pts
avg error
B+
Ipsos
5 elections tracked — None detected
1.6pts
avg error
B
Research Co.
3 elections tracked — None detected
2.1pts
avg error
| Pollster | Grade | Avg Error | Elections | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | A | 0.8pts | 5 | None detected |
| Leger | A- | 1.2pts | 8 | Slight LPC lean |
| Angus Reid | B+ | 1.8pts | 6 | None detected |
| Nanos Research | A | 0.9pts | 7 | None detected |
| Mainstreet | B | 2.3pts | 5 | Slight CPC lean |
| EKOS | B- | 2.8pts | 6 | Slight NDP lean |
| Forum Research | C+ | 3.5pts | 4 | Variable |
| Ipsos | B+ | 1.6pts | 5 | None detected |
| Research Co. | B | 2.1pts | 3 | None detected |
© MaplePolls 2026 — Data from Canadian pollsters
Not affiliated with any political party
Not affiliated with any political party