Demographics — Federal (2021 Census)
Population
36.9M
Median Age
41.6
Med. Income
$84,000
Vis. Minority
26.5%
Immigrants
23%
0-14
16%
15-24
11.7%
25-34
13.7%
35-44
13.3%
45-54
12.8%
55-64
13.6%
65+
18.9%
Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census
| Category | Percent |
|---|---|
| 0-14 | 16% |
| 15-24 | 11.7% |
| 25-34 | 13.7% |
| 35-44 | 13.3% |
| 45-54 | 12.8% |
| 55-64 | 13.6% |
| 65+ | 18.9% |
Poll Analysis
Methodology-level readings of the polling data: each pollster's lean versus the rolling average, how much each party's headline figure has moved recently, and where the current numbers land against the seat-projection model.
House effects (last 90 days)
Average signed deviation of each pollster's recent polls from the rolling average. Positive means the pollster has shown the party higher than the aggregate; negative means lower. Methodology-level — not a judgement of any firm.
Liaison StrategiesLPC-1.9CPC-0.9NDP+2.3BQ-0.3GPC-0.813 polls
Nanos ResearchLPC-2.2CPC-0.6NDP+1.313 polls
Headline-figure volatility
Range (highest minus lowest) of each party's rolling-average percentage over the window. A wider range means more week-over-week movement.
range over 19 daysLPC3.0CPC1.8NDP3.6BQ0.6GPC0.9
Path to majority (current model)
Feeds current rolling-average shares into the uniform-swing seat projection on the 2025 per-riding result. A simplified estimate, not a forecast.
LPC projected at 201 seats. Majority threshold: 172 (343 total seats).
29 over majority
These are factual, methodology-level readings of the polling data, not predictions.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Liaison Strategies house effect | LPC -1.9, CPC -0.9, NDP +2.3, BQ -0.3, GPC -0.8 |
| Nanos Research house effect | LPC -2.2, CPC -0.6, NDP +1.3 |
| LPC 30d range | 3.0 |
| LPC 90d range | 3.0 |
| CPC 30d range | 1.8 |
| CPC 90d range | 1.8 |
| NDP 30d range | 3.6 |
| NDP 90d range | 3.6 |
| BQ 30d range | 0.6 |
| BQ 90d range | 0.6 |
| GPC 30d range | 0.9 |
| GPC 90d range | 0.9 |
| LPC projected seats | 201 / 172 |
Economy
Indicators referenced in current Canadian politics: inflation, the policy interest rate, and the CAD–USD exchange rate.
Inflation (CPI, year-over-year)
as of Apr 1, 2026
↑2.8%
Policy interest rate
as of Jun 3, 2026
no change2.3%
USD/CAD daily exchange rate
as of Jun 4, 2026
↑1.3896CAD per USD
Source: Bank of Canada. View on bankofcanada.ca ↗
CPI series: Statistics Canada (via Bank of Canada Valet).
MaplePolls is independent; the Bank of Canada does not endorse this site (see bankofcanada.ca/terms).
| Indicator | Latest value |
|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, year-over-year) | 2.8 % |
| Policy interest rate | 2.3 % |
| USD/CAD daily exchange rate | 1.3896 CAD per USD |
In Parliament
Current-session bills before the House of Commons and the Senate, sourced from LEGISinfo. Status and sponsor are shown as published; the full text and procedural history live on parl.ca. Not presented as an official record.
C-9Jun 4, 2026
Combatting Hate Act
Status: At consideration in the House of Commons of amendments made by the Senate · Sponsor: Hon. Sean Fraser
Latest vote: Agreed to on Mar 25, 2026
LPC 164 yea (5p)CPC 131 nay (5p)NDP 5 nayBQ 22 yeaGPC 1 nay
C-259Jun 4, 2026
Fair Representation Act
Status: At second reading in the House of Commons · Sponsor: Heather McPherson
C-16Jun 4, 2026
Protecting Victims Act
Status: At report stage in the House of Commons · Sponsor: Hon. Sean Fraser
Latest vote: Agreed to on Jun 4, 2026
LPC 169 yea (3p)CPC 136 nay (2p)NDP 5 nayBQ 20 nay (1p)GPC 1 nayIND 2 nay
C-25Jun 4, 2026
Strong and Free Elections Act
Status: At report stage in the House of Commons · Sponsor: Hon. Steven MacKinnon
C-20Jun 4, 2026
Build Canada Homes Act
Status: At report stage in the House of Commons · Sponsor: Hon. Gregor Robertson
S-218Jun 4, 2026
An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1982 (notwithstanding clause)
Status: At second reading in the Senate · Sponsor: Sen. Peter Harder
S-213Jun 4, 2026
An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act (demographic information)
Status: At second reading in the Senate · Sponsor: Sen. Donna Dasko
S-246Jun 4, 2026
Wartime Service Recognition Act
Status: Senate bill awaiting first reading in the House of Commons · Sponsor: Sen. Hassan Yussuff
Source: LEGISinfo (parl.ca). Not presented as an official record.
| Bill | Status |
|---|---|
| C-9 — Combatting Hate Act | At consideration in the House of Commons of amendments made by the Senate |
| C-259 — Fair Representation Act | At second reading in the House of Commons |
| C-16 — Protecting Victims Act | At report stage in the House of Commons |
| C-25 — Strong and Free Elections Act | At report stage in the House of Commons |
| C-20 — Build Canada Homes Act | At report stage in the House of Commons |
| S-218 — An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1982 (notwithstanding clause) | At second reading in the Senate |
| S-213 — An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act (demographic information) | At second reading in the Senate |
| S-246 — Wartime Service Recognition Act | Senate bill awaiting first reading in the House of Commons |
Canadian Prediction Markets
Live odds from Polymarket — refreshed daily
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Volume $639KDec 31, 2026
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Volume $11KJun 10, 2026
Source: Polymarket Gamma API
| Outcome | Yes % | No % |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | 5% | 95% |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | 97% | 3% |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 88% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | 14% | 86% |
| Another Canada election called by June 30? | 2% | 98% |
| 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? | 2% | 98% |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | 41% | 60% |
| Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | 5% | 96% |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? | 99% | 1% |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? | 1% | 99% |
| Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%? | 33% | 67% |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting? | 0% | 100% |
Party Fundraising
Elections Canada open data — contributions to registered parties — Reporting year 2025
National totals
CPC61,041 contributors
$47.8M
LPC104,748 contributors
$35.6M
NDP28,460 contributors
$7.9M
BQ2,785 contributors
$2.2M
GPC2,898 contributors
$1.9M
PPC636 contributors
$467K
By province
AB
CPC
$7.2M
LPC
$2.1M
NDP
$532K
BC
CPC
$6.3M
LPC
$3.8M
NDP
$1.3M
MB
CPC
$1.0M
LPC
$863K
NDP
$155K
NB
LPC
$393K
CPC
$331K
NDP
$37K
NL
LPC
$145K
CPC
$97K
NDP
$38K
NS
LPC
$840K
CPC
$403K
NDP
$150K
NT
LPC
$37K
CPC
$35K
NDP
$8K
NU
LPC
$10K
CPC
$6K
NDP
$3K
ON
LPC
$12.9M
CPC
$12.4M
NDP
$1.7M
PE
LPC
$102K
CPC
$62K
NDP
$12K
QC
LPC
$2.0M
BQ
$1.2M
CPC
$846K
SK
CPC
$1.4M
LPC
$459K
NDP
$215K
YT
CPC
$61K
LPC
$47K
NDP
$17K
Source: Contributions and Expenses (detailed) dataset (od_cntrbtn_de) — Elections Canada. Version available at
| Party | Total | contributors |
|---|---|---|
| CPC | $47.8M | 61,041 |
| LPC | $35.6M | 104,748 |
| NDP | $7.9M | 28,460 |
| BQ | $2.2M | 2,785 |
| GPC | $1.9M | 2,898 |
| PPC | $467K | 636 |
Media Temperature — 7 Day
Sentiment analysis of 23 news articles this week.
Only parties with enough recent coverage are scored. A party missing here reflects a coverage gap, not an editorial choice.
LPCTrending positive · 23 articles
−1.0+0.25+1.0
PositiveNeutralNegative
| Party | Average score | Article count |
|---|---|---|
| LPC | 0.25 | 23 |
Your Riding
Source: Open North Represent API
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© MaplePolls 2026 — Data from Canadian pollsters
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