What If? — Scenario Builder
Use the +/- steppers to explore seat outcomes
Projection — uniform swing model. Estimates, not predictions.
LPC42.3% ≈ 201 seats
CPC32.4% ≈ 100 seats
NDP12.8% ≈ 15 seats
BQ6% ≈ 25 seats
GPC2.3% ≈ 2 seats
Total: 95.8% + Other/PPC 4.2% = 100.0%
201
100
25
0172 = majority343
Liberal Majority
| Party | Vote % | Estimated seats |
|---|---|---|
| LPC | 42.3% | 201 |
| CPC | 32.4% | 100 |
| NDP | 12.8% | 15 |
| BQ | 6% | 25 |
| GPC | 2.3% | 2 |
Compare Provinces
Pick two provinces to see their polling side by side
Standings
OPC39.3%
= 0.0
OLP33.6%
= 0.0
ONDP18.3%
= 0.0
GPO4.6%
= 0.0
Latest poll
Abacus Data
May 20 · n=1,017
OPC 41%OLP 31%ONDP 17%GPO 5%
Standings
CAQ22.0%
= 0.0
PLQ28.0%
= 0.0
QS15.0%
▼ -0.3
PQ30.0%
= 0.0
Latest poll
Léger
May 18 · n=1,027
PQ 30%PLQ 28%CAQ 22%
Leadership Races
No active leadership races.
Election Calendar
May
2026
New Brunswick
Municipal
Passed
scheduled
Jul
2026
Manitoba (Dunnottar/Victoria Beach)
Municipal
1 mo
scheduled
Aug
2026
PEI (Resort Municipality)
Municipal
2 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Quebec
Provincial
4 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
British Columbia
Municipal
4 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
NWT (Yellowknife)
Municipal
4 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Ontario
Municipal
4 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Manitoba
Municipal
4 mo
scheduled
Nov
2026
Prince Edward Island
Municipal
4 mo
scheduled
Nov
2026
Saskatchewan (Rural)
Municipal
5 mo
scheduled
Dec
2026
NWT (Hamlets)
Municipal
6 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Prince Edward Island
Provincial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Manitoba
Provincial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Northwest Territories
Territorial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Alberta
Provincial
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
NWT (Municipalities)
Municipal
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Nunavut
Municipal
16 mo
scheduled
Oct
2029
Federal
General Election
41 mo
scheduled
Promise Tracker
Each entry summarises how a third-party source has assessed a 2025 federal-election commitment. The status reflects what the cited source reports, not MaplePolls's own judgement. Tap the source link for the original assessment.
LPCPromised Apr 28, 2025
Negotiate new trade deal with United States
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
Eliminate internal trade barriers by Canada Day
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
$5 billion Trade Diversification Corridor Fund
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
Improve housing affordability
Based on Angus Reid's one-year-review public-opinion polling, not on a direct assessment of the policy.
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
Address high cost of living
Based on Angus Reid's one-year-review public-opinion polling, not on a direct assessment of the policy.
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
$130 billion platform spending plan over 4 years
Pollster Accuracy Report Card
Based on final polls vs actual election results
A
Mainstreet Research
2025-federal · None detected
0.3pts
avg error
A
Liaison Strategies
2025-federal · None detected
0.5pts
avg error
A
Angus Reid
2025-federal · None detected
0.5pts
avg error
A
Research Co.
2025-federal · Under-estimated CPC
1.0pts
avg error
A
Nanos Research
2025-federal · Over-estimated NDP
1.2pts
avg error
A
Forum Research
2025-federal · Under-estimated CPC
1.4pts
avg error
A
Léger
2025-federal · Under-estimated CPC
1.4pts
avg error
B
EKOS Research
2025-federal · Under-estimated CPC
1.9pts
avg error
B
Ipsos
2025-federal · Under-estimated CPC
2.1pts
avg error
B
Abacus Data
2025-federal · Over-estimated NDP
2.3pts
avg error
| Pollster | Grade | Avg Error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | A | 0.3pts | None detected |
| Liaison Strategies | A | 0.5pts | None detected |
| Angus Reid | A | 0.5pts | None detected |
| Research Co. | A | 1.0pts | Under-estimated CPC |
| Nanos Research | A | 1.2pts | Over-estimated NDP |
| Forum Research | A | 1.4pts | Under-estimated CPC |
| Léger | A | 1.4pts | Under-estimated CPC |
| EKOS Research | B | 1.9pts | Under-estimated CPC |
| Ipsos | B | 2.1pts | Under-estimated CPC |
| Abacus Data | B | 2.3pts | Over-estimated NDP |
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© MaplePolls 2026 — Data from Canadian pollsters
Not affiliated with any political party
Not affiliated with any political party