What If? — Scenario Builder
Use the +/- steppers to explore seat outcomes
Projection — uniform swing model. Estimates, not predictions.
LPC44.7% ≈ 216–233 seats (est. 226)
CPC29.7% ≈ 68–85 seats (est. 75)
NDP10.3% ≈ 12–15 seats (est. 13)
BQ12.5% ≈ 26–30 seats (est. 27)
GPC3% ≈ 2 seats
Total: 100.2% + Other/PPC 0.0% = 100.2% (unrealistic)
226
75
27
0172 = majority343
Liberal Majority
Seat ranges reflect the TYPICAL size of recent Canadian polling error — final polls have missed by a couple of points in the same direction across the 2019, 2021, and 2025 elections (Conservatives under-estimated, NDP over-estimated). The range is roughly an 80% band around the central estimate; it does NOT capture model error or an unusual once-in-a-cycle swing. Normal uncertainty, not a guarantee.
| Party | Vote % | Estimated seats | Projected seat range (low–high) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LPC | 44.7% | 226 | 216–233 |
| CPC | 29.7% | 75 | 68–85 |
| NDP | 10.3% | 13 | 12–15 |
| BQ | 12.5% | 27 | 26–30 |
| GPC | 3% | 2 | 2–2 |
Scenario — projected seats by region
Uniform-swing estimate
LPC
CPC
Projection applies a uniform national swing to each riding's 2025 result — not regional polling. Regions group ridings (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, Alberta, BC, Territories). Territories carry their 2025 winner forward unswung.
| Region | Leader | Lead seats | Region total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | LPC | 30 | 32 |
| Quebec | LPC | 44 | 78 |
| Ontario | LPC | 102 | 122 |
| Prairies | CPC | 14 | 28 |
| Alberta | CPC | 29 | 37 |
| BC | LPC | 30 | 43 |
| Territories | LPC | 2 | 3 |
Projected seats — an estimate, not the current House
Where the seats could land under this scenario (uniform-swing model). A projection, not the seats parties hold now.
Solid = central estimateFaded = range to the high end
Liberal 226–233Conservative 75–85Bloc Québécois 27–30NDP 13–15Green 2
343 projected seats (central estimate)
| Party | Seats | Side |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 226–233 | Government |
| Conservative | 75–85 | Opposition |
| Bloc Québécois | 27–30 | Opposition |
| NDP | 13–15 | Opposition |
| Green | 2 | Opposition |
Compare Provinces
Pick two provinces to see their polling side by side
Standings
OPC40.6%
= 0.0
OLP36.5%
= 0.0
ONDP20.8%
= 0.0
GPO2.1%
= 0.0
Latest poll
Liaison Strategies
2026-08-24 · n=1,500
OPC 39%OLP 35%ONDP 20%GPO 2%
Standings
PQ29.3%
▼ -1.0
CAQ23.8%
▲ +0.6
PLQ22.3%
▼ -0.9
PCQ15.6%
▼ -0.5
QS8.9%
▲ +1.9
Latest poll
Léger
2026-08-31 · n=1,008
PQ 29%CAQ 24%PLQ 22%PCQ 15%QS 10%
Leadership Races
No active leadership races.
Election Calendar
May
2026
New Brunswick
Municipal
Passed
Jul
2026
Manitoba (Dunnottar/Victoria Beach)
Municipal
Passed
Aug
2026
PEI (Resort Municipality)
Municipal
Passed
Oct
2026
Quebec
Provincial
1 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
British Columbia
Municipal
1 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
NWT (Yellowknife)
Municipal
1 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Ontario
Municipal
1 mo
scheduled
Oct
2026
Manitoba
Municipal
1 mo
scheduled
Nov
2026
Prince Edward Island
Municipal
2 mo
scheduled
Nov
2026
Saskatchewan (Rural)
Municipal
2 mo
scheduled
Dec
2026
NWT (Hamlets)
Municipal
3 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Prince Edward Island
Provincial
13 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Manitoba
Provincial
13 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Northwest Territories
Territorial
13 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Alberta
Provincial
13 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
NWT (Municipalities)
Municipal
13 mo
scheduled
Oct
2027
Nunavut
Municipal
13 mo
scheduled
Oct
2029
Federal
General Election
37 mo
scheduled
Promise Tracker
Tracking the governing party's platform commitments — the Liberal Party currently forms government.
Each entry summarises how a third-party source has assessed a 2025 federal-election commitment. The status reflects what the cited source reports, not MaplePolls's own judgement. Tap the source link for the original assessment.
LPCPromised Apr 28, 2025
Negotiate new trade deal with United States
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
Eliminate internal trade barriers by Canada Day
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
$5 billion Trade Diversification Corridor Fund
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
Improve housing affordability
Based on Angus Reid's one-year-review public-opinion polling, not on a direct assessment of the policy.
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
Address high cost of living
Based on Angus Reid's one-year-review public-opinion polling, not on a direct assessment of the policy.
LPCPromised Apr 19, 2025
$130 billion platform spending plan over 4 years
Pollster accuracy — 2025 federal election
Each pollster's final-week poll measured against the certified result.
Certified result
LPC 43.8%CPC 41.3%NDP 6.3%BQ 6.3%GPC 1.2%PPC 0.7%
Elections Canada — 45th general election official results ↗Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=2,000
LPC 44.0 → 43.8 = 0.2CPC 41.0 → 41.3 = 0.3NDP 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 1.0 → 1.2 = 0.2PPC 1.0 → 0.7 = 0.3
MAE = (0.2 + 0.3 + 0.3 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.3) / 6 = 0.27
Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=1,000
LPC 43.0 → 43.8 = 0.8CPC 41.0 → 41.3 = 0.3NDP 7.0 → 6.3 = 0.7BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 1.0 → 1.2 = 0.2PPC 1.0 → 0.7 = 0.3
MAE = (0.8 + 0.3 + 0.7 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.3) / 6 = 0.43
Final-week poll · Apr 26, 2025 · n=2,820
LPC 44.0 → 43.8 = 0.2CPC 40.0 → 41.3 = 1.3NDP 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3BQ 7.0 → 6.3 = 0.7GPC 1.0 → 1.2 = 0.2
MAE = (0.2 + 1.3 + 0.3 + 0.7 + 0.2) / 5 = 0.54
Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=1,019
LPC 44.0 → 43.8 = 0.2CPC 39.0 → 41.3 = 2.3NDP 7.0 → 6.3 = 0.7BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 2.0 → 1.2 = 0.8PPC 1.0 → 0.7 = 0.3
MAE = (0.2 + 2.3 + 0.7 + 0.3 + 0.8 + 0.3) / 6 = 0.77
Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=863
LPC 42.6 → 43.8 = 1.2CPC 39.9 → 41.3 = 1.4NDP 7.8 → 6.3 = 1.5BQ 6.4 → 6.3 = 0.1GPC 1.9 → 1.2 = 0.7PPC 1.1 → 0.7 = 0.4
MAE = (1.2 + 1.4 + 1.5 + 0.1 + 0.7 + 0.4) / 6 = 0.88
Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=1,153
LPC 43.0 → 43.8 = 0.8CPC 39.0 → 41.3 = 2.3NDP 8.0 → 6.3 = 1.7BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 2.0 → 1.2 = 0.8PPC 1.0 → 0.7 = 0.3
MAE = (0.8 + 2.3 + 1.7 + 0.3 + 0.8 + 0.3) / 6 = 1.03
Final-week poll · Apr 25, 2025 · n=1,502
LPC 43.0 → 43.8 = 0.8CPC 39.0 → 41.3 = 2.3NDP 8.0 → 6.3 = 1.7BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 2.0 → 1.2 = 0.8PPC 1.0 → 0.7 = 0.3
MAE = (0.8 + 2.3 + 1.7 + 0.3 + 0.8 + 0.3) / 6 = 1.03
Final-week poll · Apr 26, 2025 · n=2,500
LPC 42.0 → 43.8 = 1.8CPC 38.0 → 41.3 = 3.3NDP 9.0 → 6.3 = 2.7BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 2.0 → 1.2 = 0.8PPC 1.0 → 0.7 = 0.3
MAE = (1.8 + 3.3 + 2.7 + 0.3 + 0.8 + 0.3) / 6 = 1.53
Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=1,805
LPC 43.6 → 43.8 = 0.2CPC 37.5 → 41.3 = 3.8NDP 9.2 → 6.3 = 2.9BQ 4.4 → 6.3 = 1.9GPC 2.0 → 1.2 = 0.8PPC 2.0 → 0.7 = 1.3
MAE = (0.2 + 3.8 + 2.9 + 1.9 + 0.8 + 1.3) / 6 = 1.82
Final-week poll · Apr 27, 2025 · n=2,500
LPC 41.0 → 43.8 = 2.8CPC 39.0 → 41.3 = 2.3NDP 10.0 → 6.3 = 3.7BQ 6.0 → 6.3 = 0.3GPC 1.0 → 1.2 = 0.2PPC 3.0 → 0.7 = 2.3
MAE = (2.8 + 2.3 + 3.7 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 2.3) / 6 = 1.93
How this is measured
Election covered: the 2025 federal general election, held April 28, 2025.
“Final week” means each pollster's last poll whose fieldwork ended in the seven days before election day (April 21–28, 2025). A pollster with no poll in that window is left out, never estimated.
Error per party = the absolute gap between the poll's share and the certified share, in percentage points. MAE (mean absolute error) is the average of those gaps.
Only the named major parties are counted (Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Bloc Québécois, Green, People's Party), and only where the pollster reported a number for them.
Sources: the MaplePolls polls database for the poll figures; Elections Canada's certified 45th general election results for the actual shares.
This cycle: 10 pollsters had a qualifying final-week poll.
| Pollster | Final-week poll date | Sample size | Mean absolute error | Per-party errors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | Apr 27, 2025 | 2,000 | 0.27 | LPC 44.0 vs 43.8 = 0.2; CPC 41.0 vs 41.3 = 0.3; NDP 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 1.0 vs 1.2 = 0.2; PPC 1.0 vs 0.7 = 0.3 |
| Liaison Strategies | Apr 27, 2025 | 1,000 | 0.43 | LPC 43.0 vs 43.8 = 0.8; CPC 41.0 vs 41.3 = 0.3; NDP 7.0 vs 6.3 = 0.7; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 1.0 vs 1.2 = 0.2; PPC 1.0 vs 0.7 = 0.3 |
| Angus Reid | Apr 26, 2025 | 2,820 | 0.54 | LPC 44.0 vs 43.8 = 0.2; CPC 40.0 vs 41.3 = 1.3; NDP 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; BQ 7.0 vs 6.3 = 0.7; GPC 1.0 vs 1.2 = 0.2 |
| Research Co. | Apr 27, 2025 | 1,019 | 0.77 | LPC 44.0 vs 43.8 = 0.2; CPC 39.0 vs 41.3 = 2.3; NDP 7.0 vs 6.3 = 0.7; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 2.0 vs 1.2 = 0.8; PPC 1.0 vs 0.7 = 0.3 |
| Nanos Research | Apr 27, 2025 | 863 | 0.88 | LPC 42.6 vs 43.8 = 1.2; CPC 39.9 vs 41.3 = 1.4; NDP 7.8 vs 6.3 = 1.5; BQ 6.4 vs 6.3 = 0.1; GPC 1.9 vs 1.2 = 0.7; PPC 1.1 vs 0.7 = 0.4 |
| Forum Research | Apr 27, 2025 | 1,153 | 1.03 | LPC 43.0 vs 43.8 = 0.8; CPC 39.0 vs 41.3 = 2.3; NDP 8.0 vs 6.3 = 1.7; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 2.0 vs 1.2 = 0.8; PPC 1.0 vs 0.7 = 0.3 |
| Léger | Apr 25, 2025 | 1,502 | 1.03 | LPC 43.0 vs 43.8 = 0.8; CPC 39.0 vs 41.3 = 2.3; NDP 8.0 vs 6.3 = 1.7; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 2.0 vs 1.2 = 0.8; PPC 1.0 vs 0.7 = 0.3 |
| Ipsos | Apr 26, 2025 | 2,500 | 1.53 | LPC 42.0 vs 43.8 = 1.8; CPC 38.0 vs 41.3 = 3.3; NDP 9.0 vs 6.3 = 2.7; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 2.0 vs 1.2 = 0.8; PPC 1.0 vs 0.7 = 0.3 |
| EKOS Research | Apr 27, 2025 | 1,805 | 1.82 | LPC 43.6 vs 43.8 = 0.2; CPC 37.5 vs 41.3 = 3.8; NDP 9.2 vs 6.3 = 2.9; BQ 4.4 vs 6.3 = 1.9; GPC 2.0 vs 1.2 = 0.8; PPC 2.0 vs 0.7 = 1.3 |
| Abacus Data | Apr 27, 2025 | 2,500 | 1.93 | LPC 41.0 vs 43.8 = 2.8; CPC 39.0 vs 41.3 = 2.3; NDP 10.0 vs 6.3 = 3.7; BQ 6.0 vs 6.3 = 0.3; GPC 1.0 vs 1.2 = 0.2; PPC 3.0 vs 0.7 = 2.3 |
Keep MaplePolls free and independent
Everything here is free, and always will be. If MaplePolls is useful to you, a donation goes straight to running costs — the servers, the data, the time it takes to keep the numbers right — and keeps the site independent. Thank you; it genuinely helps.
Support MaplePollsGet the numbers every Saturday
Federal standings, poll-by-poll breakdowns, and AI analysis — free in your inbox.
MethodologyData integrityArchiveGuideGlossaryFAQPrivacyTermsSupport MaplePollsFeedbackContactBlueskyX
© MaplePolls 2026 — Data from Canadian pollstersNot affiliated with any political party
MaplePolls is independent and non-partisan. Party and pollster names are trademarks of their respective owners, used for identification and news reporting only.
8aa1d6f · 2026-09-04