The Liberals hold a single-digit lead over the Conservatives, 43.2% to 35.5%, but the sharpest movement this week sits well down the ballot: the NDP is the week's biggest mover, off -1.1 points to 11.3%. The Conservatives firmed too, up 1.0 points to 35.5%, while the Liberals held roughly flat at 43.2%. The Bloc Québécois edged up 0.2 points to 6.5%, with only minor drift among the Greens at 2.6% and the People's Party at 1.6%.

The five most recent polls agree on the running order and disagree on the margins. Liberal figures span 41 to 43, Conservatives run from 32 to 37 — Nanos at the bottom of that range, Abacus at the top — so how tight the top two look turns on which firm you pick up. The wider divergence is over the NDP: the three Liaison Strategies reads and Nanos put the party in the low-to-mid teens, Nanos as high as 15, while Abacus reads them at 9. That is a house difference of several points, larger than sampling variation alone would explain, and Abacus carries by far the largest sample here — over 4,200 in its latest survey — anchoring the low end of that number.

On the figures alone, the Liberal advantage over the Conservatives is intact, and none of the five recent surveys draws the two parties level. The genuine contest is for third, where the NDP spread across firms is the least settled figure in the table — from 9 up to 15 depending on the pollster. That disagreement is why this week's NDP decline is the reading to hold loosest: with the recent polls split so sharply on where the New Democrats actually sit, the rolling average is reconciling a real house gap, and fresh polling is needed to confirm whether the slide reflects a genuine shift or the mix of firms inside the window.