Alberta referendum
Question 10 — Polling
Polling — Question 10
The headline is built only from polls that ask the question in the exact official ballot wording (O.C. 160/2026). Polls with different wording measure something different — pooling them would produce a misleading average — they appear separately below.
Context — other wordings (not pooled into the headline)
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process to hold a binding separation referendum?”
“Would you prefer Alberta to remain in Canada or to leave Canada?”
Trend over time
| Field date | Pollster | Wording | Remain | Leave | Unsure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | ARI | Official ballot wording (O.C. 160/2026) | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| 2026-05-24 | ARI | Simple hypothetical ("stay or leave") | 67% | 30% | — |
| 2026-08-14 | ARI | Paraphrased wording (not ballot-matched) | 61% | 33% | 6% |
The primary line connects ballot-matched polls only. Other wordings appear as distinct point markers, never connected to the primary line.
| Field dates | Pollster | Wording | n | Remain | Leave | Unsure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 – Aug 14 | ARI | Paraphrased | — | 61% | 33% | 6% | ARI, Aug 2026 |
| May 22 – May 24 | ARI | Ballot (official) | 800 | 60% | 35% | 5% | ARI, May 2026 |
| May 22 – May 24 | ARI | Simple | 800 | 67% | 30% | — | ARI, May 2026 |
3 polls in total (1 ballot-matched). Sources: see links in the table above.
The question being asked (O.C. 160/2026)
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Questions 1–5 — Non-constitutional (O.C. 110/2026, non-binding)
Immigration, social services, voting requirements — provincial policy questions not requiring constitutional change.
Do you support the Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities?
Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta‑approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services?
Assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially-funded social support programs?
Assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family's use of the healthcare and education systems?
Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election?
Questions 6–9 — Constitutional amendments (O.C. 109/2026, non-binding)
Proposed amendments to the Canadian Constitution — judicial appointments, Senate abolition, federal program opt-out, provincial law priority.
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King's Bench and Appeal courts?
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate?
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs?
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province's laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province's laws and federal laws conflict?
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